Israel woke up on Wednesday without a winner. After a Tuesday vote that drew the largest turnout in more than a quarter century, the exit polls could not agree on who won, and the one thing they all pointed to was a long fight over who gets to form the next government.

Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served more than 19 years as prime minister in total, and Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief now leading the Yashar party, both claimed momentum. Neither has a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The count is still under way, so everything below is a snapshot, not a final result.

A Vote That Settled Almost Nothing

About 7.3 million Israelis were eligible to vote for the 26th Knesset. According to the Central Elections Committee, turnout reached 77.7 percent when polls closed at 10 p.m., up 7.1 percentage points from 2022. TRT World reported that it was the highest since 1999.

The three major Israeli television networks (Channels 11, 12 and 13) each projected that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition bloc would reach 61. Reuters, as carried by ThePrint, likewise described a deadlock with no obvious route to power for either side.

The early picture slightly favored the challengers, with the opposition bloc at 52 seats to Netanyahu’s 50. The numbers then moved. Channel 12’s update gave Netanyahu’s camp 52 and the opposition 49, while Kan 11 showed a 51 to 51 tie, and CNN reported that Channel 13 also showed a tie. Channel 14, which is strongly pro-Netanyahu, put his bloc at 60, a figure far outside the pack.

Exit polls are estimates, not results. The gap between the channels, and the revisions made overnight, are a reminder not to treat any seat count as settled.

Likud Leads, but Leading Is Not Governing

One finding held steady across the polls. Likud is projected to be the largest single party, with estimates ranging from 24 to 27 seats, ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar at 20 to 23.

Being largest does not decide who governs in Israel. The party or bloc with the most votes has no guaranteed right to form a government, and the process can drag on. In 2022, Netanyahu’s bloc won a 64-seat majority even though it received fewer raw votes than its opponents. Two parties, Meretz and Balad, fell below the electoral threshold, and about 289,000 votes ended up unrepresented. This year’s threshold is 3.25 percent of valid votes, roughly four seats.

The two sides are built from familiar parts. Netanyahu’s bloc includes Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition bloc is made up of Yashar, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats.

The Arab Parties and the Arithmetic Problem

The most consequential number may be the one in the middle. The two Arab-led parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, were projected to win a record combined 17 to 18 seats. That could make them pivotal, as Reuters also noted.

Yet the opposition has largely ruled out relying on them. Democrats leader Yair Golan is the exception, and Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu has publicly opposed such an arrangement. So a bloc can look like a majority on paper while having no practical way to govern.

The election also left tension around how Arab-citizen voters were treated. Likud announced plans to send 2,000 “volunteers” to Arab polling stations over fraud allegations that had no substantiation, and critics called it intimidation. On election day, several parties filed complaints about irregularities, and the Central Elections Committee disputed some of them. Three people were arrested over an alleged scheme to bribe voters to support Ra’am. These are allegations and arrests, not findings, and the full picture is not yet clear.

First Vote After October 7

This was Israel’s first national election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and it was fought in that shadow. Netanyahu’s government was in power that day and then served out its full term. The opposition has demanded accountability and a state commission of inquiry.

Eisenkot, 66, is a hawkish former military chief who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war. He has said he will not serve under Netanyahu, including in a rotation arrangement. On Tuesday night he pledged to act at once to carry out “the people’s decision” and to replace Netanyahu’s government. During the campaign he warned Netanyahu, “Don’t you dare to use Israel’s security for your own political gain,” according to Haaretz.

Netanyahu’s reading of the night was different. He said the results showed his bloc has broad support among Jewish and Zionist Israelis. Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Golan all called the exit polls a defeat for him. In that dispute, Netanyahu has one real advantage. Reuters noted that a deadlock could let him stay on as caretaker prime minister while negotiations continue.

The Count Is Not Over

The early official count should be read with caution. By 5:20 a.m., just over 1.2 million ballots had been counted, with Likud at 23.36 percent of valid votes and Yashar at 15.74 percent. Early-counted ballots are not representative of the whole electorate, and a vote share is not a seat count.

Ballots from soldiers and other “double envelope” voters are still to be counted. The Jewish Chronicle said a final result was unlikely before Thursday, while Yahoo expected a tally by Friday. Estimates of timing differ, and those late ballots could still move seats.

What Happens Next

The timeline set out in the Times of Israel’s election guide and the JTA explainer is long. Formal results are due by November 4, and parties can appeal until November 18. Within seven days of the formal results, President Isaac Herzog decides who gets the first chance to form a government.

That candidate has 28 days, which can be extended by 14. If the effort fails, the president has three days to pick someone else, who then gets 28 days with no extension. After that, 61 members of the Knesset can petition for a particular lawmaker within a further 21 days. If every attempt fails, the Knesset dissolves and a new 90-day election cycle begins, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker.

The Times of Israel lists three realistic outcomes: a minority government, a unity government (which Eisenkot has ruled out) or another election. It also suggests that a renewed war with Iran, before or after the vote, could push the rival parties toward a unity deal. That remains scenario analysis, not a development.

For now, the watch list is short. Look for the final seat counts once the soldiers’ ballots are in, whether Herzog turns to Netanyahu or Eisenkot first, and whether anyone on the opposition side changes their position on the Arab parties. Israel has voted, but the decision about who leads it is still weeks away, and may be months.