On Saturday evening, Israel’s president told Gadi Eisenkot that the job of building the country’s next government was his. Isaac Herzog passed over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose Likud party won more seats than any other, and chose the leader of the Yashar party instead. The formal handover was scheduled for Sunday at 5 p.m. local time at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem.

The decision comes at the end of a tense stretch that began with an election neither side won and has since turned bitter.

Why Herzog chose Eisenkot

The choice followed consultations with every Knesset faction. According to Al Jazeera’s report, factions representing 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, while factions representing 46 backed Netanyahu. One seven-seat faction, United Torah Judaism, named no one.

Herzog had said on Thursday that the decision was his to make, and that it was far from obvious because of what he described as “the mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves.” In other words, many parties had ruled out sitting with others, and the president had to weigh recommendations that did not add up to a workable coalition.

Eisenkot responded on X, saying that “now is the time for the formation of a national emergency government.”

The arithmetic is the problem

Being handed the mandate and being able to use it are different things. A government needs 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, and the October 27 election did not give either camp that number.

The final results published by the Central Elections Committee on October 30 (see the Israel National News report) put Likud on 27 seats and Yashar on 21. B’Yachad won 12, the Joint List 11, the Democrats 8, Ra’am 8, Yisrael Beytenu 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 6 and the Religious Zionist Party 6.

Grouped by camp, the outgoing coalition holds 53 seats, Eisenkot’s change bloc holds 48, and the two Arab-led parties hold 19 between them. Eisenkot cannot reach 61 from his own bloc alone.

Adding the Arab-led parties would take him to 67, the same number that recommended him to Herzog. But Al Jazeera reports that Eisenkot has ruled out a government with those parties. He could still govern with fewer than 61 seats if he wins a confidence vote in the Knesset, which leaves the ultra-Orthodox parties and parts of the current coalition as the obvious places to look for support.

What Eisenkot says he will and will not accept

Yashar has set out four principles that any partner would have to accept:

• Recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization and committing to destroy its military and governing power.
• Recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.
• Accepting the values of the Declaration of Independence.
• Backing mandatory service for all.

Eisenkot has also said he will not partner with Netanyahu, and that anyone who held major power on October 7, 2023 must leave public life.

The fourth principle goes straight to the issue most likely to decide the outcome: military conscription for ultra-Orthodox men. The brief identifies three sticking points for the coming negotiations, namely conscription for Haredi men, the role of the Arab parties, and Netanyahu’s own future. Yashar has invited “Likud and its friends” to join a government without “extremists,” while Netanyahu has called for a unity government that includes all his current allies.

A bitter backdrop

The mandate arrives after an unusually sour post-election fortnight. Between October 28 and 30, Likud claimed the election had been “stolen” by Arab parties and demanded a police and Shin Bet investigation. These are Likud’s allegations, and they should be read as such. The Times of Israel reports that the foreign-funding claims have not been substantiated, and the Jerusalem Post notes that no evidence of systematic manipulation has been made public.

On October 29, the elections committee chairman, Justice Noam Sohlberg, instructed Shin Bet director David Zini to look into intelligence suggesting foreign entities may have financed improper election activity. That inquiry is reported as ongoing.

On November 4, Sohlberg rejected Likud’s request to delay certification, writing that the committee has no authority to withhold it. Presenting the results, he said: “It is the voters, through their ballots, who determine the election results.” Likud’s lawyer has said the party is preparing to appeal the results in part or in whole and has not yet decided how far to take it.

Netanyahu’s reaction to the president’s decision was sharp. In a video statement on November 7, he accused Eisenkot of intending to “hurriedly swear in a government with supporters of terrorism.” That is Netanyahu’s characterization, and it sits uneasily with Eisenkot’s reported refusal to rely on the Arab parties.

What happens now

Netanyahu remains prime minister until a new government wins a Knesset confidence vote. Eisenkot has 28 days to assemble one, and Herzog may grant an extension of up to 14 days. Details of the timetable are laid out in the Times of Israel’s coverage.

If Eisenkot fails, Herzog has three days to decide whether to assign another Knesset member or to tell the Speaker that no one appears capable of forming a government. A second candidate would get 14 days. If every attempt fails, the Knesset is dissolved and Israelis go back to the polls. Netanyahu could also get another chance to form a government if Eisenkot comes up short.

Several signals are worth watching in the coming days. Yisrael Beytenu’s leader has indicated he could accept “painful compromises” on enlistment, and United Torah Judaism has voiced openness to discussing a partnership. Whether either of those openings becomes something concrete, and whether any part of Likud is willing to deal with a prime minister who has vowed not to work with its leader, will say more about Eisenkot’s chances than the 67 recommendations did.

Eisenkot holds the mandate, but not yet a majority. The next four weeks will show whether a bloc built mostly on opposition to the status quo can agree on anything else.